How realistic is hyperbitcoinization (a tipping point where people start a rush to exit fiat for bitcoin in a fiat devaluation event http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/). Let's look at some global monetary and gold statistics.
Some talk about bitcoin perhaps one day matching or passing gold market cap. https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/
at $4400 which Bitcoin has been above for some of this month, it already reached around 1% of gold market cap.
But what other global targets are there for comparison. Globally, all paper currency and coins are valued around $5 trillion - at $4400 Bitcoin was already 1.5% of that.
Paper currency plus bank balances and savings value around $90 trillion - so if Bitcoin got to $50k/BTC (10x recent bitcoin highs) bitcoin would be valued 1% of all money!
So where is the tipping point - where people sit up and take notice - I'm not sure, but 1.5% of all physical currency is already pretty interesting. What happens if/when Bitcoin gets to 10%? Which then gets within reach of 1% of money of physical and bank deposits/savings globally. At some point there has to be a tipping point where money leaving accelerates for fear of falling fiat and we see the adoption S-curve play-out http://www.uversity.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Communication-Technology-Adoption-Peter-Leyden.png
The ETFs and institutional money have barely started yet, and historically gold price was influenced by the introduction of ETFs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-gold-etfs-have-transformed-market-in-10-years-2013-03-29
So will hyperbitcoinization happen, who knows. But the possibility is maybe not so far-fetched. It seems that bitcoin price news itself drives financial and other media interest - though maybe for reasons not so exposed to Bitcoin's value position.
(Some data from http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/ and https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/)
What would a stable post S-curve adoption price look like economically or geopolitically?
Interesting questions. As we've seen in the eurozone it can be difficult for countries, like Greece, to have a single currency but divergent economic policy - with the Drachma in previous economic downturns, they had been able to exploit a weak exchange rate to rebound by exporting their way out of recession. On the other end we've seen Iceland currency drop 60% https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/17/the-miraculous-story-of-iceland/?utm_term=.5461176249e9 and recover faster. An interesting alternative or future strategy proposed by Icelander Sveinn Valfells was that Iceland adopt Bitcoin as a currency - with it's cheap geothermal power it has unique advantages for Bitcoin mining. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/245327990_Bitcoin_for_Microstates_-_How_Iceland_could_adopt_Bitcoin
The government issued gold guinea and its value fluctuated relative to the unit of account. Sir Issac Newton, master of the mint (1699-1727), noticed that the government was unable to stabilise the value of the guinea and by the late eighteenth century, Britain was on a de facto gold standard, with the unit of account being 20/21 of a guinea. At the Bitcoin conference this week, Sveinn ... Sveinn Valfells. Follow. Apr 7, 2019 · 3 min read. Over the weekend a friend of mine sent me a link to a recent article in the Economist, “Flaws in Bitcoin make a lasting revival unlikely ... Consider the price of Bitcoin, which went up by a factor of about twenty-five during 2017, explaining the substantially increased interest in Bitcoin over that period. 13 At this writing (April 12, 2019), Bitcoin prices have fallen to about one-quarter of the price hit at the peak in December 2017. At their nadir in mid-December 2018, they were about one-sixth the peak price. The jump in value of bitcoins has been nothing short of precipitous: A bitcoin that started 2017 worth $1,023 was trading at $16,999 at 2 p.m. Thursday. The currency has climbed more than $7,000 ... A Brief Outline of Bitcoin Bitcoin Is A Platform For Storing And Transmitting Value Bitcoins are tokens for transacting on a distributed ledger, the blockchain [1, 2, 3] Figure : Private–public key public used for authentication (top); transactions broadcast on a peer-to-peer network (bottom). Figure : New transactions timestamped with SHA256 hash every 10m. Sveinn Valfells, PhD & J´on ...
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Skip navigation Sign in. Search Constance Choi (Seven Advisory), Michael Jackson (Partner, Mangrove), Patrick Murck (General Counsel, Bitcoin Foundation), and Sveinn Valfells (Angel Investor) discuss legal and regulatory ... BITCOIN's NEXT HUGE MOVE WILL SURPRISE EVERYONE! [Economy is MUCH worse than you think…] - Duration: 22:25. MMCrypto 28,504 views. New; 22:25. Handcrafted S1 • E1 How To Butcher An Entire Cow ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Fundur VÍB um rafmyntir, einkum Bitcoin. Sveinn Valfells, hagfræðingur og eðlisfræðingur, flutti framsögu og í panel sátu Martha Eiríksdóttir, sérfræðingur í...